Two Recent Studies Show Extreme Lockdowns and Masks May Not Help and May Hurt
I want to unpack two recent studies associated with Covid-19. One is a study of new United States Marine recruits who underwent severe quarantine. The other is a public mask-wearing study from Denmark. The results may surprise you.
Marine Corps Extreme Lockdown Study
The recruits whose average age was 19 were instructed to quarantine at home before leaving for basic training. All of the recruits were tested upon arrival. Existing Covid infections were detected with PCR tests. One percent of the recruits tested positive and were excluded from the study. The remaining marines were split into two groups totaling 3402 subjects. Both were subject to the same extreme quarantine. The only difference was that the second group did not consent to the "study." As a result, the second group was only PCR tested on the last day, day 14. The other group was tested on day one, day seven, and day 14.
Description of Quarantine the Policy
Double-layered cloth masks were worn at all times indoors and outdoors, except when sleeping or eating.
Social distancing of at least 6 feet was mandated.
No one could leave the campus.
No personal items were allowed, like cell phones that could possibly spread the virus.
Routine hand washing was enforced.
Double occupancy rooms were cleaned daily.
Shared dining rooms pre-plated meals and were sterilized after each meal.
Shared bathrooms were wiped with bleach after each use.
Results
A total of 51 subjects tested positive.
Five had symptoms, which amounted to 9.8 percent of the 51 infected marines.
No hospitalizations occurred.
No deaths occurred.
The viral load at diagnosis was on average approximately 4 times as high in the 5 symptomatic participants.
At the end of two weeks, an average of 2.3 percent of all recruits subjected to extreme lockdown had Covid-19 versus only 1 percent upon arrival from self-imposed at-home quarantine.
The group tested on days 1, 7, and 14 tested at a higher rate of 2.8 percent versus 1.7 percent for the group that only got tested on day 14.
Room sharing and mutual platoon membership resulted in higher transmission.
Room proximity was not a factor in transmission.
Communal dining and showering did not result in higher transmission.
My Conclusion
Extreme lockdowns are no better than at-home quarantines and might be up to twice as worse.
Infection rates are relatively low in each case at 1 to two percent.
Covid-19 infections in young and healthy patients are not very dangerous for them and very unlikely to result in hospitalization or death.
Sleeping in separate rooms is a good idea during the pandemic. Room sharing is not a sound idea during the pandemic, whether for cohabitation or work and study.
People with positive tests experiencing symptoms generate and shed much more virus than those with only positive test results.
Large indoor spaces like communal showers and dining facilities are relatively safe.
Repeated testing results in about 40% more positive results than not testing as often.
Wearing masks indoors does not seem to work.
I want to add that a 10 percent chance exists that testing may result in a false-negative result. This may explain the relatively large difference in positive tests in the group that was tested more. Conversely, there is a chance of a false positive result from PCR testing. As a result, more testing will result in more positive cases, even though they are erroneous.
Danish Mask Study
Adults spending more than 3 hours per day outside the home without occupational mask use were the subjects of this study. Denmark did not have any mask mandate during the study, and mask-wearing was uncommon there. Less than five percent of people wore masks at the time. Recommended public health measures included quarantining if Covid-19 was suspected or verified, social distancing, limiting contact with numerous people, frequent hand hygiene and cleaning, and limiting visitors to hospitals and nursing homes. The rate of infection in Denmark was two percent at the time of the study. 4862 completed the study, which lasted about one month. One group wore masks, and one did not.
Results
1.8 percent of the mask group got Covid versus 2.1 percent for the non-mask wearing group.
When the researchers conducted a further analysis that used only participants reporting wearing face masks "exactly as instructed," 2 percent became infected versus 2.1 percent who did not wear masks.
Conclusion of the Danish Study
The researchers concluded that the difference between the mask-wearing group and the non-mask-wearing group was not statistically significant. Therefore, they concluded that mask-wearing is not a sound recommendation. Viruses are incredibly minute, and most masks are too porous to stop aerosolized viruses. The masks with valves are useless because they will not prevent the spread from someone already infected.
Conventional Wisdom?
Respiratory infections spike in colder weather. As a result, we are seeing many more cases of Covid-19. Lockdowns and masks do not appear to be helping, and the two studies back this up. In the past, during flu and cold season, most people believed that the reason was that we were cooped up inside with each other, thus facilitating the spread. I find it strange that conventional wisdom is now the reverse. We should stay inside, they say. The marine study refutes this recommendation. The Danish study has been criticized because the participants were not required to wear masks indoors. Still, the marine extreme quarantine research also refutes that concept because they wore double masks indoors.
My Final Word
Youth and health are two significant factors for survival. If you don't have them on your side, you can always improve your health. Rember, removing underlying conditions is the name of the game. There are lots of things you can do to help yourself during the pandemic. This page contains all of the posts I have done on the subject. The bottom line is that there is no easy way to end the pandemic. Maybe the vaccinations will help. Winston Churchill once said, "If you're going through hell, keep going." We will get through this. Stay safe. Keep going.
