Coronavirus Pandemic Statistics: Have We Lost the Forest For the Trees?

When looking at anything too closely, as the saying goes, one can lose the forest for the trees. Here is an example.

When we focus on fine details, they can be ugly, off-putting, and frightening. No matter how beautiful the person, the skin is scary up-close, no exceptions. Imagine a world where we could only see the microscopic view of everybody’s skin at first, only to draw out later to see how attractive they are. The first impression would be universal disgust. So it is with the Covid-19 death data.

Most of you have never thought about death rates before. The numbers are terrible and confusing; nobody can deny that. I am not diminishing any part of the Covid-19 pandemic. But, like skin, looking too close is scary. So let’s take a big step back and look at larger trends. I went right to the source and visited the CDC website on New Year’s Day. Unfortunately, there are always droves of people dying for all sorts of reasons. Life is a death sentence. Death is sad. No spinning that one…

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dataviz8737#!/vizhome/MortalityTrends1900-2017/DeathRatesandLifeExpectancy

 We should be ecstatic because we live on the right side of the dramatic downward trend. Except for the 1918 Spanish flu, the death rate generally follows a relatively steep downward trajectory. There are numerous reasons for the trend, like sanitation, mass water purification, antibiotics, vaccines, etc. We have done well. However, did you notice the slight increase 2009 – 2020? More on that later…

 Now, let’s take a step 50 years closer and the 11 year rise starting in 2009 becomes more apparent.

 If I did not highlight the recent flu outbreaks, would they be as noticeable as the eleven-year rise? Do not take my question as a statement that ANY pandemic did not occur. They did in the past, we are in one now, and there will be others. They should not be denied or ignored!

 Let’s go even closer and look at the last 21 years:

 I recognize that December numbers are incomplete and will update the data when the final numbers are here. You can see that we were experiencing a steady decline until about 2009, then a well-defined rise in the death rate begins. Why the shift?

First, don’t panic! The big picture is still excellent. Life expectancy has almost doubled since 1900. So why have US deaths/100k been on the rise since 2009? The reasons this uptick began are not clear, but I have some ideas. The last eleven years have brought an increase in cell phone and computer screen use. As a result, maybe we spend less time together, which is harmful to our health. I have written about this before here. Another problem with cell phones and tablets is their emission of blue light, which disrupts sleep. Lack of sleep shortens lives. (1). The food supply is increasingly becoming more and more highly processed. As a result, our nutritional needs are not being met.  We are overfed and undernourished, which increases the likelihood and severity of diseases. The result is an increased death rate. (2)  

What can you do? As they say, the best offense is a good defense. A solid plan will help against the coronavirus and other diseases and prevent other health problems simultaneously. Make 2021 resolutions to sleep better, eat better, move more, and limit screen time. Change can be hard, but here are a few simple ways to make it easier. Or, try one big thing like giving up processed carbohydrates . Additionally, try not to lose the forest for the trees. If you spend all your time designing a lifestyle intended only to avoid the coronavirus you may inadvertently ignore other essential things you should be doing to stave off disease. Remember there are other illnesses that kill more people than Covid-19 such as heart disease with twice as many deaths. Let’s not lose the forest for the trees.